John Kay da en su blog una lección magistral sobre burbujas, y aplica su conocimiento al caso de Bitcoin.
Primero da una definición de burbuja.
People often use the term bubble to describe assets which they think are overvalued. But I find it more useful to define a bubble more narrowly. An asset can be held by someone who prizes its fundamental value – the use they will obtain from it, the income which it will yield over the years, or the pleasure they derive from owning it. Or it may be held for essentially speculative reasons by someone who hopes it to sell it on to someone else. A bubble exists when the asset is mainly held by the latter group, who hope to sell it on, rather than by people who are interested in its intrinsic value.
Luego rebate a quienes afirman que el hecho de que la generación de nuevos bitcoins va a ser por diseño cada vez más escasa hará elevarse el valor.
Any illusions that holders might have had that the limited supply of bitcoin would maintain its value should have been dispelled by the arrival of other competing crypto-currencies. If the US Treasury perversely decided to limit the supply of dollar bills, then Americans would start using Canadian dollars, or euros, or IOUs from Berkshire Hathaway, or just their credit cards, to buy their gas and tip their cab drivers, and the official dollar might at best command a marginal premium to its equivalent value in these other currencies.
Sobre burbujas especulativas leí hace unos años Early Speculative Bubbles, un libro muy conciso que analiza tres crisis económicas de tipo burbuja de las que se tiene conocimiento. Muy interesante por lo que de él se aprende.
De John Kay leí hace unos años Obliquity, que también disfruté.